Michele Penner Angrist, 'The Making of Middle East Politics,' in Michele Penner Angrist, ed., Politics and Society in the Contemporary Middle East, 3rd ed. (Boulder, CO: Lynne Rienner Publishers, 2019), ch. 1, pp. 1–31.
This is a framing-and-vocabulary chapter rather than a thesis-driven article: Angrist argues that contemporary MENA politics is intelligible only as the product of a specific historical sequence, and she supplies the analytical categories the rest of the volume then uses. She first defines the region — a label coined by nineteenth-century European and American elites, covering twenty countries and roughly 500 million people, and far smaller than and not synonymous with 'the Muslim world' — then classifies its regimes, showing that until 2011 MENA was a global outlier: the one world region where dictatorships did not fall while democracies replaced them elsewhere.
The historical core of the chapter traces a chain of legacies: Islamization and Arabization from the seventh century; Ottoman decline relative to Europe and the reform debate it triggered; European imperialism in three distinct legal forms (colony, mandate, treaty); the creation of Israel; uneven decolonization; and the three types of founding regime that emerged (single-party republics, monarchies, and three electoral systems). Her central causal claim is that the founding regimes' failure — state socialism that did not deliver growth, and pan-Arab nationalism discredited by the 1967 defeat — broke an implicit authoritarian bargain (prosperity and victory over Israel in exchange for citizens forgoing participation and accountability), and that this failure opened the political space that Islamist movements filled, with the 1979 Iranian revolution as the galvanizing event. She closes by arguing that the Arab Spring did not undo authoritarianism (only Tunisia moved toward democracy; the monarchies weathered the storm and actively counter-mobilized) and identifies five cross-cutting problems that structure the whole book, with gender running through all of them.
It is the course's anchor chapter and answers the two questions any MENA politics course has to settle in week one: what is 'the Middle East' as an object of study, and why does its politics look the way it does. It gives the student (a) a defensible working definition of the region and an explicit warning against conflating MENA with the Muslim world; (b) the comparative-politics vocabulary the rest of the course will assume — regime vs. government, political rights vs. civil liberties, monarchy vs. authoritarian republic vs. electoral system; and (c) a compressed causal history from the seventh century to roughly 2018 that later thematic chapters (governments and oppositions, international politics, political economy, civil society, religion, identity, gender) and the twelve country cases all hang off. Angrist's closing pages literally road-map the volume, which is why it is flagged as a reference to consult all semester rather than a one-week required reading: it is the chapter you return to when a country case assumes background you do not have.
Key terms 20
- Middle East / MENA as an exonym
- the terms 'Near East' and 'Middle East' were coined by nineteenth-century European and US elites for territory between Western Europe and the Far East, and are criticized as Eurocentric; in this book 'Middle East' includes North Africa (Morocco, Algeria, Tunisia, Libya)
- Middle East ≠ Muslim world
- most MENA residents outside Israel are Muslim, but a majority of the world's Muslims live outside MENA, and religious minorities (e.g. Copts, Maronites, Greek Orthodox) persist within it
- Regime vs. government
- a 'government' is the particular people holding office now; a 'regime' is the broader set of processes by which leaders are selected (election, dynastic succession, coup) and how they exercise power
- Political rights
- (Freedom House sense) — free and fair elections, ability to organize competing parties free of military interference, absence of discrimination against minorities, transparent non-corrupt government
- Civil liberties
- (Freedom House sense) — freedom of expression and belief, freedom of association and organization, rule of law, individual rights
- Authoritarian monarchy
- rule by a king whose position is inherited within a ruling family; legitimacy claimed from the family's founding role in the state and/or descent from the Prophet; Saudi Arabia, Qatar, UAE, Morocco, Kuwait, Bahrain, Jordan, Oman
- Authoritarian republic
- rule by a president whose term is conferred by unfree but regularly held elections, resting on a preponderant ruling party, military backing, and state revenue used for patronage; historically Algeria, Egypt, Iraq, Syria, Tunisia, Yemen
- Islamization and Arabization
- the seventh-century spread of Islam that also spread Arabic as the language of administration, religion and culture; conversion was gradual and not forced (non-Muslims paid special taxes)
- The two Ottoman reform camps
- one held that survival required adopting European military and political innovations (parliaments, training, tactics); the other held that weakness reflected declining faith and required a purified Islam. This cleavage prefigures the later secularist–Islamist divide
- Colony vs. mandate vs. treaty relationship
- colonies were taken before WWI and exploited openly; mandates were awarded by the League of Nations after WWI with an ostensible obligation to prepare natives for independence; in the Gulf, Britain ruled through treaties with local ruling families
- Nationalism
- (Angrist quotes James Gelvin, 2008: 56) — the belief that a population sharing identifiable characteristics such as religion, language or history therefore merits independent statehood
- Zionism and the Balfour Declaration
- (1917) — Herzl's argument that Jews constitute a nation needing its own state, and Britain's wartime endorsement of a Jewish national 'home' in Palestine, later written into the League of Nations Palestine Mandate
- Conservative elites vs. 'challenger' generation
- postindependence power struggle between established elites tied to Britain/France and younger civil servants, workers, students and peasants demanding land reform, nationalization, and a clean break with Europe; resolved by military coups
- Pan-Arab nationalism
- Nasser's doctrine that Arabs constitute one nation artificially divided by post-WWI European borders, and that unity is the route to restoring Arab power and to recovering Palestine
- State socialism
- nationalization of industry, state-led industrialization, land reform, and large welfare bureaucracies, adopted by the single-party republics (and, minus the redistributive populism, by the monarchies)
- The implicit authoritarian bargain
- the regimes would deliver prosperity and victory over Israel; citizens would forgo participation, free elections, and accountable government. Its collapse is Angrist's hinge explanation for post-1967 political restiveness
- Political Islam / Islamism
- the diagnosis that Arab failure stems from having strayed from Islam, and the movements built on it; the Muslim Brotherhood (Egypt, 1928, Hassan al-Banna) is the region's first and long its most important
- Structural adjustment and conditionality
- from the late 1970s into the 1990s nearly every MENA state had to shrink the state's economic role and integrate into world markets under World Bank/IMF conditions that hurt citizens and stripped regimes of tools of control
- Facade democratization
- licensing opposition parties and holding nominally competitive elections on uneven playing fields for offices with no real power; combined with repression and with the 'better the devil you know' appeal to fears of Islamist rule
- Monarchical resilience
- the empirical puzzle that Arab Spring uprisings toppled presidents but no kings; Bahrain was the only monarchy facing regime-threatening protest, and it was repressed with Saudi and Emirati help
Evidence and cases
- Region-level baseline: twenty countries, approximately 500 million people; three non-Arab states (Israel, Turkey, Iran)
- Table 1.1 (World Bank data): GDP per capita ranges from Yemen at $680 to Qatar at $66,411 (constant 2010 US$); adult female literacy ranges from 38% in Iraq to 68% in Algeria to 98% in Qatar; urbanization from 35% in Yemen to 99% in Qatar; fertility above 4 births per woman in Iraq, Palestine and Yemen while seven countries sit at or below replacement (2.1)
- Table 1.2 (Freedom House, 2010 vs. 2017 political rights): only Israel and Tunisia scored 1–3 in 2017; eighteen of twenty scored 5, 6 or 7; eleven countries' scores were unchanged, seven worsened (Bahrain, Kuwait, Lebanon, Turkey, Yemen, UAE, Palestine), and only two improved (Jordan and Tunisia). Tunisia moved 7 to 2; Turkey moved 3 to 5
- Iran as a mixed system: elected president and parliament, but the Council of Guardians vets candidates and vetoes legislation and the indirectly elected Supreme Leader controls armed forces, judiciary and media; 2017 political rights score of 6
- Early Islamic history: Muhammad's first revelations in 610 CE; the Sasanid and Byzantine empires displaced; the Umayyad Empire (661–750 CE, capital Damascus) and Abbasid Empire (750–945 CE, capital Baghdad)
- Ottoman power and decline: sieges of Vienna in 1529 and 1683; Venetian destruction of the Ottoman fleet in 1656; secessions by Serbia, Greece, Romania and Bulgaria in the 1800s; nineteenth-century reforms (new taxation, an Ottoman parliament modeled on Britain and France, European military advisers, overhauled legal and education systems) that came too late
- Table 1.3 (European imperialism): Algeria under French colonial rule 1830–1962; Egypt under Britain 1882–1936; Tunisia (France) 1881–1956; Morocco (France) 1912–1956; Libya (Italy) 1911–1951; British mandates in Iraq (1920–1932), Israel, Jordan and Palestine; French mandates in Lebanon and Syria from 1920; Gulf treaty relationships (Bahrain 1880–1971, Kuwait 1899–1961, Qatar 1916–1971, UAE 1892–1971). Iran, Oman, Saudi Arabia, Turkey and North Yemen were never under European control
- Variation in colonial depth: Britain in Kuwait and the UAE controlled only foreign policy and ports; France in Morocco worked through the existing monarchy; France in Algeria uprooted tribes, destroyed religious institutions, confiscated land, settled more than 150,000 Europeans and annexed the territory as three French provinces
Testable claims 13
- Define and distinguish 'government' from 'regime' — Angrist makes this the foundational move of comparative politics and it is the kind of definitional question that opens an in-class test
- Explain why MENA was described as a 'global outlier' in the late twentieth century: every other world region saw at least some dictatorships fall and democracies built, while MENA's did not
- Compare the two authoritarian variants — monarchy vs. republic — on source of legitimacy, role of ruling party and military, economic ideology (populist/redistributive vs. not), Cold War alignment, and stance toward pan-Arab nationalism. Then explain the Arab Spring puzzle: presidents fell, kings did not
- Distinguish colony, mandate, and treaty relationship, and give a case of each plus its long-run consequence (Algeria's settler annexation and 700,000-death war vs. Britain's light-touch treaty rule in Kuwait/UAE vs. France ruling Morocco through the existing monarchy)
- State the 'implicit authoritarian bargain' and explain what broke it. Angrist's causal chain — state socialism fails economically + 1967 defeat discredits pan-Arabism → legitimacy crisis → citizens diagnose the problem as distance from Islam → Islamist movements → 1979 Iran galvanizes them — is the single most examinable argument in the chapter
- Identify the two camps in the Ottoman reform debate (adopt European military and political innovations vs. return to a purified Islam) and explain why that seventeenth- to nineteenth-century argument matters for twentieth-century secularist–Islamist politics
- Correct the common error that 'Middle East' and 'Muslim world' are the same thing, and explain why the term 'Middle East' is criticized as Eurocentric
- The partition arithmetic: 55 percent of the land to a Jewish state, when Jews were roughly 32 percent of the population and owned 6 percent of the land — a likely short-answer or multiple-choice item, as is Arabs being 90 percent of Palestine's population in 1917
- Name the five countries Angrist says have systems where electoral competition determines who rules: Israel, Turkey, Lebanon, Iraq, and (post-2011) Tunisia — and explain why she nonetheless flags Turkey as possibly leaving that category under Erdoğan
- List the four coup/regime-change dates that reorient the region: Syria 1949, Egypt 1952, Iraq 1958, Iran 1979
- How authoritarian regimes survived the triple pressure of the 1970s–1990s (Islamist opposition, IMF/World Bank economic reform, global democratizing norms): oil largesse and clientelism in rich states; repression plus facade democratization in poorer ones; and everywhere the appeal to fear of Islamists
- Angrist's five concluding themes, which double as a course outline: (1) basic political order and the destruction wrought by civil wars in Syria, Yemen, Libya and ISIS-era Iraq; (2) the difficulty of sustaining electoral competition; (3) identity, sect and the Sunni–Shi'ite turn after 2011; (4) economic performance as a driver of grievance; (5) how to relate to the West and the US — plus gender as the axis all four run through
- Read Table 1.2 as evidence: which countries improved after the Arab Spring (only Jordan and Tunisia on political rights), which worsened (Bahrain, Kuwait, Lebanon, Turkey, Yemen, UAE, Palestine), and what that pattern implies about the uprisings' net effect